The impact of credit rationing on the real sector: a study of the effect of mortgage rates and terms on housing starts

Various studies of the impact of credit rationing on the housing sector have examined its effect on mortgage terms and flows. If credit rationing has a significant effect on the economy, it must affect the real sector, i.e. housing starts. This paper examines the causal relationships between six different variables which describe mortgage rates and terms and single family housing starts. Two different types of tests for economic causality are used. The results indicate that neither credit rationing nor mortgage rates affect housing starts for the period 1963–1980. There is some evidence that housing prices have a causal relationship to housing starts, possibly reflecting speculative motives. On balance, the results are consistent with the rational expectations theory.     

Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia

This paper examines the potential role for fuel substitution in electricity production in reducing carbon dioxide emissions over a ten-year time horizon. This is achieved by adding fuel substitution to output changes resulting from demand responses arising from a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. A time profile of adjustments is developed. The tax required for Australia to meet a 20 per cent reduction in emissions from 1993 levels is calculated and effects on inequality and social welfare are examined. The paper also examines the potential effect of a subsidy towards the use of low-emission fuels, financed from the carbon tax. A subsidy produces an improvement in emissions abatement and a lower tax required to reach the emissions target.     

Killing for Money and the Economic Theory of Crime

There is a large literature on the economics of crime and punishment, yet surprisingly little attention is paid to the receipt of money for crime. “Contract killing” is surprisingly neglected not only by economists but also by social scientists in general. In this paper, I look at the case not of professional gangster “hitmen” but of individuals who have found themselves in a position where they wish to have a killing carried out. This discussion does not condone the practice any more than an economic analysis of suicide is an inducement to individuals to kill themselves. To the lay reader, the cases where an individual feels the need to pay for killing may seem to be such that rationality is not a likely form of behaviour. However, the economics of crime has adopted the use of the rationality postulate as a heuristic for all types of crime.     

Recent Progress on Endogeneity in Choice Modeling

We describe recent progress in several areas related to endogeneity, including: choice set formation and attention to attributes; interactions among decision-makers; respondents' strategic behavior in answering stated preference choices; models of multiple discrete/continuous choice; distributions of willingness-to-pay; and methods for handling traditionally endogenous explanatory variables.     

Ethics and Ethos: The Buffering and Amplifying Effects of Ethical Behavior and Virtuousness

Logical and moral arguments have been made for the organizational importance of ethos or virtuousness, in addition to ethics and responsibility. Research evidence is beginning to provide, empirical support for such normative claims. This paper considers the relationship between ethics and ethos in contemporary organizations by summarizing emerging findings that link virtuousness and performance. The effect of virtue in organizations derives from its buffering and amplifying effects, both of which are described.     

Augmenting travel cost models with contingent behavior data

This paper proposes contingent behavior survey questions as a valuable supplement to observed data in travel cost models of non-market demand for recreational resources. A set of observed and contingent behavior results for each survey respondent allows the researcher to control for individual heterogeneity by taking advantage of panel data methods when exploring the nature of respondent demands. The contingent scenarios also provide opportunities to (a) test for differences between observed and contingent preferences and/or (b) assess likely demands under conditionsbeyond the domain of observed variation in costs or resource attributes. Most importantly, contingent scenarios allow the researcher to imposeexogenously varying travel costs. Exogenous imposition of travel costs together with panel methods reduces the omitted variables bias that plagues observed-data travel cost models of recreational demand. Using a convenience sample of data for illustrative purposes, we show how to estimate the demand for recreational angling by combining observed and contingent behavior data. We begin with simple naive pooled Poisson models and progress to more theoretically appropriate fixed effects panel Poisson specifications.The authors are at the University of Nevada and UCLA, respectively. We gratefully acknowledge the comments of both Scott Shonkwiler and participants in the W133 meetings in Santa Fe, New Mexico and for research material provided by Wayne Gray. The data were provided by Rang Narayanan. Research assistance was provided by Jerry McGraw and Natalie Tucker. Research partially supported by the Nevada Experiment Station. Any errors or omissions remain the authors' responsibility.     

Can Stigma Explain Large Property Value Losses? The Psychology and Economics of Superfund

This research documents the long term impacts of delayed cleanup on property values in communities neighboring prominent Superfund sites. The research examines the sale prices of nearly 34,000 homes near sites in three metropolitan areas for up to a 30-year period. To our knowledge, no other property value studies have examined sites in multiple areas with large property value losses over the length of time used here. The results are both surprising and inconsistent with most prior work. The principal result is that, when cleanup is delayed for 10, 15, and even up to 20 years, the discounted present value of the cleanup is mostly lost. A possible explanation for these property value losses is that the sites are stigmatized and the homes in the surrounding communities are shunned. The results suggest that expedited cleanup and minimizing the number of stigmatizing events would reduce these losses. This research was supported by the USEPA under cooperative agreement CR 824393-01-0. The authors wish to thank Alan Carlin for his patience and support along with Shelby Gerking, Kip Viscusi and three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments. We also would like to thank Christian Coerds, Graham Crawford, Rachel Deming, Karen Grace-Martin, Brian Hurd, Joe LaVerde, Eleanor Smith, and Matt Todaro for their support on this project and the participants of the Risk Perception, Valuation and Policy conference at the University of Central Florida and the AERE Workshop in Estes Park, Colorado, for their helpful feedback.     

Largest shareholder and dividend policy around the world

This paper examines the interaction between the largest shareholder and dividend policy in a sample of 8,279 listed firms drawn from 37 countries. We find that firms are more likely to pay dividends when profitability is high, debt is low, investment opportunities are limited or when the largest shareholder is not an insider. Further, the magnitude of dividend payout tends to be smaller when the largest shareholder is either an insider or a financial institution. It is also apparent that largest shareholding and dividend payout are related and that, consistent with the extant literature, legal system does matter in dividend policy decisions.     

MEMS加速计市场即将发力

近十年来,通过一旦发生碰撞就自动触发安全气囊的方法,MEMS(微电机系统)加速计使汽车变得更加安全了.     

Human capital and economic growth in an overlapping generations model

The paper describes an aggregative optimal growth model, the essential features of which are that individuals are mortal and obtain their labor skill through educational training. The process of human capital formation is described by an education function which relates the pass rate to the educational expenditure per student. Two alternative scenarios, private and public education regimes, are separately investigated. Under the decentralized education regime, risk-neutral individuals borrow to finance their education when young. Under the centralized education regime, the cost of education is financed by taxes imposed on the workers in the economy, and the central government maximizes a long-term social target function. The equilibria of both regimes are analyzed and various comparative static results derived. It is shown that educational investment in a decentralized equilibrium is higher than that in the centralized steady state. We also establish that there exists a time discount rate at which or above which the decentralized per capita consumption exceeds that of the centralized steady state whereas for time rates of discount sufficiently near the population growth rate, the above result will be reversed.